British holidaymakers are tightening their belts for the first time in half a decade, with fresh Barclays data revealing that travel spending slipped into reverse last month as households braced themselves against a fresh wave of cost of living pressures and the economic shockwaves emanating from the Iran conflict.
Card spending across the board rose by a modest 0.9 per cent year on year in March, a touch below February’s 1 per cent uptick, according to the high street lender’s latest consumer spending report. But it was the travel sector that delivered the most striking reversal: outlay on holidays and trips fell by 3.3 per cent, marking the first annual decline recorded by Barclays since March 2021, when the pandemic still held the country in its grip.
The pullback will come as an unwelcome jolt for an industry that has enjoyed a prolonged post-Covid boom, buoyed by consumers’ well-documented appetite for prioritising “experiences” over material goods. Spending at travel agents tumbled 4.6 per cent, airlines saw a 4.1 per cent drop and public transport receipts fell 2.9 per cent. The one bright spot was domestic hospitality, with hotels, resorts and other accommodation providers posting a 1.2 per cent uplift as Britons opted to stay closer to home over the Easter break.
The ongoing Middle East conflict, which erupted in late February following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, is reverberating through the British high street. Barclays found that one in seven adults has either delayed a significant purchase or started squirrelling away cash in anticipation of higher energy costs this summer.
Consumers have been granted a brief reprieve at the meter: Ofgem lowered the energy price cap by 7 per cent from 1 April. However, the regulator has already flagged an 18 per cent jump from July, as wholesale costs, stoked in part by geopolitical instability, feed through to household bills.
Essentials are once again the pinch point. Spending on food and petrol edged up 0.5 per cent, with a 1.6 per cent rise in fuel spend representing the first increase since February 2023 as surging crude prices push up forecourt costs. Discretionary spending growth cooled to 1.1 per cent, although clothing (up 3.6 per cent) and entertainment (up 3.5 per cent) continued to hold their own. Cinema takings climbed 5.5 per cent, with Ryan Gosling’s Project Hail Mary and Pixar’s Hoppers drawing audiences back to the big screen.
Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, said the data pointed to a softer spell ahead. “Shoppers delaying major purchases and building up a savings buffer in response to the shock from the Middle East reinforces our view that activity will be muted in the coming months,” he said. With a Bank of England rate decision due in under three weeks, Meaning argued that Threadneedle Street’s best course would be to hold rates steady, “containing the worst of inflation without unduly squeezing consumers”.
Despite the storm clouds, household-level sentiment is proving resilient. Some 67 per cent of adults remain confident in their personal finances and 71 per cent in their ability to live within their means. The gloom deepens, however, when consumers look outwards: just 21 per cent express confidence in the UK and global economies, down from 25 per cent and 24 per cent respectively in February.
Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said the figures exposed a gulf between mood and behaviour. “Cost of living concerns and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on confidence, prompting caution and a desire to cut back, but spending remains resilient across several categories, namely clothing, entertainment and digital content and subscriptions,” she said. Households, she added, were performing an “ongoing balancing act” — trimming where they could while still splashing out on what mattered most.
A parallel report from the British Retail Consortium painted a rosier headline picture, with UK retail sales up 3.6 per cent year on year in March, well ahead of the 1.1 per cent growth recorded a year earlier and above the 12-month average of 2.6 per cent. The figure was powered by a 6.8 per cent leap in food sales.
Helen Dickinson, the BRC’s chief executive, credited the timing of Easter. “An early Easter provided a much-needed boost to food sales as families came together over the long weekend,” she said. “Non-food performance was more uneven: demand was robust for computers, toys, and homeware, but clothing and footwear continued to struggle.” The Middle East turbulence, she added, had also bled into the tills of retailers selling travel-related goods.
For SME operators in hospitality, leisure and retail, the message from March’s numbers is mixed but instructive: British consumers are still willing to spend — but increasingly on their own doorstep, and with one eye firmly on what July’s energy bills might bring.
