Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Thursday, following gains in the previous session and a sharp monthly increase, as investors assessed ongoing efforts to end the war between the United States and Iran amid expectations for crude exports from the Middle East.
By 00:45 GMT, Brent crude futures had risen 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $98.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $90.35 a barrel.
Both benchmarks gained about $1 a barrel on Wednesday. Brent posted a monthly gain of around 14% in September, its biggest since July, while WTI rose by about 5% over the month.
Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said, “Although buying has continued amid supply concerns as efforts to end the war have stalled, selling pressure has also emerged as signs of a recovery in Middle East oil exports appear.”
He cited the resumption of Saudi oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu as one of the key factors behind the shift.
Tazawa said a new catalyst, such as progress in negotiations to end the war, would be needed for WTI to reach $88 a barrel.
Qatar said Tuesday that it hoped diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington would lead to progress.
However, U.S. President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN, citing comments from U.S. officials, that he was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for “concrete” steps by Tehran regarding its nuclear program.
Saudi Arabia resumed loading oil onto tankers from Yanbu on Tuesday after restarting the East-West pipeline.
Goldman Sachs estimated in a Tuesday note that oil exports from Gulf countries, including shipments by vessels sailing with their transponders turned off, had recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day in the previous week, in line with the 2025 average. It also said exports had doubled in September.
Two sources also said the OPEC+ alliance was likely to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November when it meets on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 264,000-barrel decline. Fuel inventories, however, fell sharply due to strong seasonal and global demand.
