What Does Tel Aviv Want from Jordan?

Jordan is currently facing a series of Israeli actions that, while often discussed individually, form a broader pattern when viewed together.

Despite Jordan’s sensitive geopolitical role in regional security and the strategic importance of its territory and airspace from both American and Israeli perspectives Tel Aviv appears to be disregarding these considerations, sending increasingly public and consistent signals of pressure toward the Kingdom.

The issues are numerous, They include Israel’s refusal to renew the agreement for supplying Jordan with additional water, restrictions at the border crossings and the continued failure to increase the daily quota of Palestinians permitted to cross, a situation that has negatively affected Jordan.

Only days ago, dozens of buses were reportedly turned back.

The list also includes previous interruptions to the supply of Israeli gas sold to Jordan, which imposed additional financial costs on the Kingdom; ongoing developments at Al-Aqsa Mosque that are viewed as undermining Jordan’s custodial role and potentially paving the way for greater Israeli control over the holy site; continued military activity, fortifications, and barriers along the Jordan-West Bank border; the gradual annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank, with its long-term strategic implications for Jordan’s security; and obstacles affecting the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza through Jordan.

Taken together, these developments point to a serious and escalating situation that cannot simply be eased through statements or by describing it as temporary.

What appears evident is that Israel’s confrontational approach toward Jordan has intensified significantly compared with previous years.

This may also reflect an attempt to make Jordan pay a political price, particularly at a time when diplomatic relations remain strained and ambassadors have not been exchanged.

From Israel’s perspective, Jordan played an active international role during the first two years of the Gaza war, a position that may have contributed to current tensions.

These developments also raise questions about the practical role of the Wadi Araba Peace Treaty.

If such measures against Jordan are taking place despite the treaty, what function does it continue to serve?

Supporters of the treaty have long argued that it protects Jordan from Israeli threats, reinforces the legitimacy of international borders, and is backed by international guarantees.

Yet, the current Israeli actions have prompted questions about whether those assurances remain meaningful in practice.

Like many countries, Jordan has structural vulnerabilities.

At the same time, it possesses important strategic strengths that should be effectively utilized in responding to what many view as growing Israeli pressure.

The trajectory of Israeli policy toward Jordan appears to be becoming more confrontational by the day.

Relying solely on the existence of the Wadi Araba Treaty, international guarantors, or Jordan’s geopolitical importance no longer appears sufficient.

The assumption that Israel would moderate its approach out of its own strategic interests has not materialized.

If anything, recent developments suggest the opposite, reinforcing a perception that Israel believes it can act without meaningful opposition.

The tension continues to escalate despite periods of logistical coordination and Jordan’s ongoing role in supporting regional security.

This suggests that the region may be entering a fundamentally different phase one carrying risks that extend well beyond previous disputes.

The central question therefore remains: What exactly does Tel Aviv want from Jordan?

The answer, the author argues, goes far beyond viewing these actions as temporary pressure or tactical maneuvering.

Instead, it may point to something far more consequential what could amount to the gradual political demise of the Wadi Araba Peace Treaty, potentially placing it on the same path as the Oslo Accords.