2026 budget: passing the review and the financial transition test

The latest figures, comparing the re-estimate of the 2026 general budget with the International Monetary Fund’s estimates for 2027, show an increase in domestic revenues, growth in public revenues that outpaces the growth in spending, and a fall in the deficit as a share of GDP. These indicators offer a reading of the fiscal path and reflect the importance of discipline in managing resources and commitments, while distinguishing between re-estimating the results of the current year and the projections for the coming year.

In my reading, the importance of these figures lies in the rising contribution of domestic resources, as external grants decline, alongside higher capital spending. This combination supports confidence in the ability to finance development and maintain financial stability. It is also linked to reaching an agreement at expert level on the sixth review with the International Monetary Fund, which signals the continuation of reform and of commitment to the fiscal path despite the challenges.

According to the 2026 re-estimate, domestic revenues reached JD9.846 billion, compared with JD10.934 billion in the Fund’s estimate for 2027, a difference of JD1.088 billion, or 11.1%. External grants in the re-estimate stood at JD851 million, compared with JD700 million in the Fund’s estimate, a decrease of JD151 million, or 17.7%. The increase in domestic revenues therefore exceeded the decline in grants.

Total public revenues came to JD10.697 billion in the re-estimate, compared with JD11.634 billion in the Fund’s estimate, an increase of JD937 million, or 8.8%. Total public spending was JD12.756 billion, compared with JD13.687 billion, an increase of JD931 million, or 7.3%. This shows revenue growth outpacing spending growth.

In detail, current spending was JD11.306 billion, compared with JD12.046 billion, an increase of JD740 million, or 6.5%. Capital spending was JD1.450 billion, compared with JD1.641 billion, an increase of JD191 million, or 13.2%. This comparison shows that the relative increase in capital spending exceeded the increase in current spending, highlighting the importance of projects within the fiscal framework.

The deficit after grants was JD2.060 billion in the 2026 re-estimate, compared with JD2.053 billion in the Fund’s estimate for 2027, a difference of seven million dinars. As a share of GDP, it was 4.5% compared with 4.2%. This is an improvement whose significance becomes clearer when the deficit is compared with the size of the economy.

The deficit before grants was JD2.910 billion, compared with JD2.753 billion, a difference of JD157 million. Its share of GDP fell from 6.3% to 5.7%. The primary deficit was JD650 million, compared with JD450 million, a difference of JD200 million, or 30.8%, and its share of GDP fell from 1.4% to 0.9%.

The primary deficit figures carry particular significance in this reading. The gap between the two values is about a third of the re-estimate figure, revealing the scale of the improvement built into the Fund’s estimates, alongside the rise in capital spending. This gives the comparison a meaning that goes beyond looking at the overall deficit alone.

Nominal GDP at current prices came to JD46 billion in the re-estimate, compared with JD48.567 billion in the Fund’s estimate, a nominal increase of JD2.567 billion, or 5.6%. This percentage differs from the real growth rate.

For this reason, the smooth progress of the International Monetary Fund reviews carries particular importance for a non-oil economy facing ongoing regional pressures. Continued reform and fiscal discipline deserve recognition, as they form the basis for maintaining confidence, strengthening the ability to manage commitments, following up on projects, and linking spending to available resources. Accuracy in reading the figures, however, remains the foundation for judging fiscal performance.