Britain risks becoming heavily dependent on US gas imports within the next decade, prompting renewed calls for increased North Sea production to safeguard energy security.
New analysis from Wood Mackenzie suggests that liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States could account for around 60 per cent of the UK’s gas supply by 2035, a dramatic increase from roughly 10 per cent in 2024.
The forecast comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension and volatility in global energy markets, raising concerns about the risks of relying on a single external supplier.
Britain’s domestic gas production has been declining steadily for decades, with output from the North Sea now at its lowest level since the early 1970s. As supply falls, the country has become increasingly reliant on imports, including pipeline gas from Norway and LNG shipments from overseas.
In 2024, the UK sourced around 43 per cent of its gas from the domestic North Sea, a similar share from Norway, and the remainder from LNG imports, the majority of which came from the United States.
Wood Mackenzie’s projections suggest this balance will shift significantly over the next decade, as domestic production continues to decline faster than overall demand.
The consultancy argues that boosting domestic oil and gas output could help reduce exposure to international market shocks and improve resilience.
Gail Anderson, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said the UK should adopt a broad approach to energy policy, combining renewables with continued use of domestic hydrocarbons and emerging technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen.
“Reducing dependence on LNG imports should be a priority,” she said, particularly in an environment where energy supplies are increasingly influenced by geopolitical conflict.
The analysis also suggests that gas produced in the UK continental shelf has a lower carbon footprint than LNG transported across the Atlantic and can be supplied at significantly lower cost in the short term.
The findings are likely to intensify debate within government over the future of North Sea production.
Industry groups have warned that declining output is being accelerated by tax policies and restrictions on new exploration licences, which they argue limit the UK’s ability to maximise domestic resources.
However, the government maintains that expanding fossil fuel extraction is not the solution to long-term energy security or price stability, emphasising instead the need to accelerate the transition to clean, homegrown energy.
A government spokesperson said the focus remains on maintaining existing production while investing in renewable energy and reducing reliance on volatile global markets.
Most analysts agree that increasing North Sea production would have only a limited effect on consumer energy prices, which are largely determined by global markets.
However, proponents argue that even modest increases in domestic supply could improve security and reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions.
The debate has been sharpened by recent developments in the Middle East, where conflict has disrupted key shipping routes and contributed to rising energy prices.
The risk of further escalation has highlighted the strategic importance of secure and diversified energy supplies for import-dependent countries such as the UK.
As the UK continues its transition towards net zero, balancing short-term energy security with long-term decarbonisation goals remains a central challenge.
The latest analysis suggests that without intervention, reliance on imported gas, particularly from the US, will increase significantly, raising questions about resilience and cost.
For policymakers, the task will be to navigate these competing priorities, ensuring that the UK’s energy system remains secure, affordable and sustainable in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
