The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that the latest escalation in confrontations between the United States and Iran could undermine its forecasts of a significant surplus in the oil market next year. This comes at a time when global supplies rose during June with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though they remained below pre-war levels.
The agency added that global oil markets found a breather last month after a temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran helped reopen the strait. The effective closure of the strait during the peak of the largest oil supply crisis in history had disrupted crude flows that reached about 14 million barrels per day at certain points, according to CNBC.
The agency explained that global oil supplies rose by 4.1 million barrels per day during June, but remained about 9.4 million barrels per day lower compared to pre-war levels.
It added that it expects global supplies to grow by 7.5 million barrels per day next year, but this scenario depends on improved tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The agency said: “However, the escalation of hostilities on July 7th and 8th casts doubt on the outlook and could undermine the scenario that projects the market shifting into a surplus next year.”
Petra
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