Global markets ended 2025 stronger, but far less forgiving.
Growth returned, equity indices pushed higher and inflation cooled. Yet the rally exposed a market increasingly dependent on a narrow set of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) leaders.
Investors now face a tougher question: will recent gains reflect durable fundamentals or a new phase of concentration risk?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global economy to expand by around 3.3 per cent in 2026, a pace that signals stability rather than acceleration. Technology investment, particularly in AI, continues to underpin that growth, helping offset slower momentum in advanced economies. Policymakers, however, are no longer providing uniform support. Central banks have shifted toward caution, weighing selective rate cuts against lingering inflation pressures and uneven labour markets.
Equity markets reflected that imbalance. In 2025, the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia) accounted for well over half of the S&P 500’s total gains, according to market estimates, reinforcing concerns that returns are becoming increasingly concentrated. By contrast, large parts of the market delivered more modest performance. The MSCI All Country World Index rose solidly over the year, but US equities continued to dominate returns, underscoring the growing divergence between headline indices and underlying breadth.
Bond markets, meanwhile, have reclaimed strategic relevance. After years in the shadows, fixed income once again offers income, diversification and downside protection as yields reset higher. The result is a market environment that rewards selectivity rather than passive exposure.
The UAE enters this cycle from a position of relative strength. Forecasts from multilateral institutions point to around 5 per cent real GDP growth in 2026, driven by non-oil expansion, investment inflows and continued economic diversification. That pace places the country well ahead of many advanced economies and reinforces its role as a regional hub for capital and asset allocation.
This combination of moderate global growth, cooling but uncertain inflation along with increasingly selective market leadership is forcing investors to rethink long-standing playbooks. For AIX Investment Group, the focus has shifted away from momentum and toward durability: constructing portfolios designed to absorb volatility while capturing long-term opportunity.
“As we move into 2026, the global rate environment is no longer binary,” says Fadi Dabbagh, president of the board at AIX Investment Group. “We are seeing selective easing in some developed markets, continued caution in others, and structurally higherfor-longer dynamics in certain regions. At AIX Investment Group, this complexity creates opportunity rather than constraint.”
Fixed income makes a comeback
For much of the past decade, ultra-low yields pushed fixed income into a defensive corner of multi-asset portfolios. That dynamic has changed. Higher yields across developed and emerging markets have restored bonds as a core strategic asset, capable of delivering income, diversification and capital preservation.
“Our fixed income strategy is increasingly granular and selective,” Dabbagh explains. “It focuses on active duration management, curve positioning, and high-quality yield capture. Structured fixed income instruments offer attractive risk-adjusted returns without excessive exposure to rate volatility.”
That selectivity matters in a world where rate expectations diverge sharply by geography. While parts of the developed world prepare for cautious easing, others remain in a higher-forlonger posture, forcing investors to manage duration and credit risk more precisely.
“Importantly, we are not chasing yield blindly,” says Dabbagh. “The emphasis is on capital preservation, liquidity, and resilience, while positioning portfolios to benefit as rate cuts eventually feed through to bond prices.”
The shift reflects a broader recalibration among investors. After years of equity-led returns driven by a narrow leadership group, many are reassessing the role of predictable income and balancesheet strength.
“In many ways, fixed income has reasserted itself as a strategic pillar of long-term wealth creation and we see 2026 as a year where disciplined bond investing is rewarded,” he adds.
Learning to live with geopolitics, AI
Geopolitical risk no longer arrives as a surprise. Trade realignment, sanctions regimes and energy security concerns now shape market behaviour on a continuous basis. Rather than attempting to forecast political outcomes, AIX Investment Group focuses on constructing portfolios that can function across regimes.
“Geopolitical risk is now a permanent feature of the investment landscape, not an episodic shock,” says Dabbagh. “At AIX Investment Group, we do not attempt to predict geopolitical events; instead, we build portfolios that can withstand and adapt to them.”
That philosophy translates into diversified exposure across regions, currencies and economic systems, supported by ample liquidity buffers and disciplined position sizing.
“Our goal is not to become overly defensive, but to remain flexible so that portfolios can absorb shocks while still capturing long-term opportunities,” he says. “In today’s world, resilience is not about avoiding risk altogether, but about managing it intelligently.”
Furthermore, AI continues to dominate market narratives, but AIX Investment Group argues its influence extends well beyond equity valuations and earnings growth. Productivity gains, cost structures and competitive positioning increasingly affect credit quality and long-term growth assumptions.
“Technology and AI in particular is no longer just an equity story,” says Dabbagh. “It is increasingly influencing productivity, corporate margins, credit quality and longterm growth expectations, all of which feed directly into fixed income markets.”
Those dynamics now inform AIX Investment Group’s issuer selection, credit analysis and duration decisions. The firm also monitors how AI-driven productivity gains may influence long-term inflation expectations and yield curves.
“We are also attentive to how technological productivity gains may influence long-term inflation expectations and yield curves, potentially supporting a more favourable backdrop for longerduration assets over time,” he explains. “In this sense, technology is quietly becoming one of the key macro drivers of fixed income performance.”
Looking beyond the US, sticky inflation
The US remains a dominant engine of innovation and capital formation, but its equity market has become increasingly concentrated. US stocks now account for roughly 70 per cent of the MSCI All Country World Index’s market capitalisation, leaving global portfolios heavily exposed to a single economy and sector.
AIX Investment Group’s strategy therefore places growing emphasis on selective opportunities outside the US, particularly where structural growth drivers are supported by improving institutional frameworks.
“In 2026, we see particularly compelling opportunities in select emerging markets, parts of the Middle East, Asia, and certain European economies outside the US core,” says Dabbagh. “These regions benefit from favourable demographics, infrastructure investment, fiscal discipline and, in some cases, reduced correlation with US-centric cycles.”
The objective, however, is not to chase short-term performance.
“The goal is not to maximise returns in any single year, but to compound wealth steadily while protecting capital across cycles,” he emphasises.
Meanwhile, inflation has retreated from recent highs, but AIX Investment Group remains cautious about declaring victory. Energy transition costs, supply-chain reconfiguration and geopolitical disruption continue to inject uncertainty into price dynamics.
“While headline inflation has eased, we believe structural inflation volatility will persist due to energy transition costs, supply-chain reconfiguration and geopolitical factors,” says Dabbagh.
As a result, the firm avoids extreme duration or credit positioning, favouring balanced exposure and flexibility.
“We avoid extreme positioning in either direction,” he says. “Ultimately, portfolio resilience in 2026 is about adaptability. Investors must be prepared for inflation to move in both directions, and portfolios should be structured to perform across that wide range of outcomes.”
Impact and the long view
Alongside its investment strategy, AIX Investment Group continues to expand its global profile. In April last year, the group announced its official sponsorship of Formula 1 driver Pierre Gasly for the 2025 season, placing the AIX Investment Group logo on the side panel of Gasly’s helmet throughout the Formula 1 World Championship.
Gasly, currently racing for the BWT Alpine F1 Team, is known for his ability to perform under pressure.
“From his early days in karting to his Grand Prix victory at Monza, Gasly has consistently demonstrated the skill, determination, and ambition that defines a Formula 1 competitor. As a key figure on the grid, his journey continues to inspire fans and set a benchmark for excellence in motorsport,” AIX Investment Group said in a statement.
“This partnership represents a step forward in our motorsport journey, from supporting young talent through our Formula 2 and Formula 3 teams, AIX Racing, to now having a presence in Formula 1,” says Morne Reinecke, director at AIX Investment Group. “It’s a key milestone and a meaningful step toward continued growth.”
Brand visibility sits alongside AIX Investment Group’s longer-term focus on impact and responsibility through its ‘We Are The Future’ initiative, a structured social responsibility framework integrated with the group’s broader strategy.
“At its core, ‘We Are The Future’ is our commitment to giving back to the community and to key segments of society through a structured, long-term social responsibility agenda,” says Reinecke.
Rather than one-off initiatives, the programme prioritises continuity and measurable outcomes across education, health, youth development and sport.
“We see our social investments as an extension of our core philosophy as an investment group: to build compounding value over time,” he says. “Just as we construct portfolios for resilience and long-term performance, we construct our community initiatives to be sustainable, scalable and aligned with the future we want our clients, partners and their families to inherit.”
Looking beyond 2026, AIX Investment Group plans to deepen its use of data, analytics and AI-enabled tools while maintaining a strong role for human judgement.
“Our philosophy is that technology should augment, not replace, human judgement,” Reinecke notes. “Our edge lies in combining modern AI and quantitative techniques with experienced portfolio managers, strong research capabilities and traditional trading principles.”
As markets adjust to a post-easy-money era, AIX Investment Group’s strategy reflects a simple premise: returns still exist, but they must be earned through selectivity, discipline and resilience — not assumption.