Moody’s credit ratings agency said the Jordanian economy has demonstrated resilience despite tensions in the Middle East, forecasting that real GDP growth will gradually rise to 3% over the remainder of the current decade.
Moody’s: Major infrastructure projects and improved regional trade will support Jordan’s growth prospects
Moody’s expects Jordan’s government debt to gradually decline to around 81% of GDP by the end of 2027
Moody’s raises Jordan’s economic strength score to Ba1 and fiscal strength to B2
Moody’s: Jordanian institutions are credible and effective in implementing reforms and responding to shocks
Moody’s: Jordan’s outlook remains stable amid continued regional tensions
Moody’s said it had completed its periodic review of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s credit ratings, forecasting that the Jordanian economy will continue to demonstrate resilience despite rising geopolitical tensions in the region, with real GDP growth gradually increasing to 3% over the remainder of the decade.
According to the report, Moody’s expects Jordan’s real GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2026, gradually strengthening to 3% over the remaining years of the decade, driven by progress in major infrastructure projects and improved regional trade flows, including with Syria.
The agency said Jordan’s credit profile is supported by the strength of its economic and fiscal policymaking institutions, strong international financial and technical support, and access to substantial domestic savings. These strengths are offset by high debt levels, structural constraints that keep growth relatively modest, high unemployment, social pressures and a volatile regional geopolitical environment.
Moody’s added that the Jordanian economy has absorbed the impact of the conflict in the Middle East relatively well, benefiting from diversified sources of growth and the rerouting of part of regional trade through the Port of Aqaba.
The agency noted that tourism revenues remained broadly stable in nominal terms during the first seven months of 2026, as strong growth in visitor numbers from the region and Gulf countries largely offset the decline in arrivals from Europe and the United States.
Regarding public finances, Moody’s expects higher energy costs resulting from the regional conflict to slow the pace of fiscal consolidation and debt reduction. It forecasts the government debt burden to gradually decline from 83.6% of GDP in 2025 to around 81% by the end of 2027.
In its assessment of Jordan’s credit profile components, Moody’s assigned an economic strength score of Ba1, compared with an initial score of Ba2, based on its expectation that economic growth will strengthen to around 3%, supported by major infrastructure projects, the gradual implementation of reforms and improved regional trade integration.
The agency also assigned a fiscal strength score of B2, compared with an initial score of B3, citing the reliable peg of the Jordanian dinar to the US dollar, which limits the government’s exposure to adverse exchange-rate fluctuations.
Moody’s said these adjustments resulted in a final scorecard range of Ba2 to B1, compared with the initial range of Ba3 to B2, noting that Jordan’s assigned rating falls within the final scorecard range.
The agency said Jordan’s Baa1 institutional and governance strength score reflects the resilience of its institutions and their record of maintaining credible and effective policies, including a demonstrated ability to implement fiscal reforms and proactive policies to address shocks.
Moody’s said the stable outlook balances the positive and negative risks facing Jordan’s credit profile, while expecting the indirect effects of the conflict in the Middle East to remain relatively limited.
The agency added that the government’s broad-based reform efforts could accelerate foreign investment flows into the Jordanian economy, potentially raising future growth above its current forecasts and strengthening the Kingdom’s ability to withstand domestic challenges and external shocks.
Moody’s identified several factors that could support a future upgrade, most notably ongoing reforms that improve medium-term growth prospects, reduce unemployment and social risks, and achieve a meaningful decline in the government debt burden and contingent liabilities, particularly in the water and electricity sectors.
It added that a credible and sustained reduction in regional geopolitical risks, easing constraints on Jordan’s long-term economic development prospects, could also support an upgrade.
Moody’s stressed that the completion of its periodic review does not constitute a new credit rating decision and does not signal that such a decision is likely in the near future.
The agency said the review was based on a ratings committee meeting held on October 9, 2026, and that the document reflects Moody’s assessment as of its publication date on October 16, 2026.
Source: Al-Mamlaka
