Israeli Blackmail and Jordan’s Response

The decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government not to renew the agreement to sell Jordan an additional 50 million cubic meters of water, beyond the country’s allocation under the peace treaty, is not new.

Since the war in Gaza began, Israel has delayed renewing the agreement. It later became clear that the extremist government was attempting to use the deal as political leverage, linking its renewal to Jordan meeting political and diplomatic demands related to its firm positions on Israel’s illegal policies in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem, as well as the ongoing war in Gaza.

Reports resurfaced in the Israeli media a few days ago, prompting an indirect response from Jordan’s Ministry of Water and Irrigation.

The ministry reaffirmed the government’s commitment to securing alternative sources for the additional quantities while stressing that Jordan’s treaty-guaranteed water allocation remains unaffected by Netanyahu’s refusal to supply the extra volume.

Jordan did not simply reject what it viewed as Israeli political blackmail.

It also set clear conditions for resuming discussions, insisting that any engagement be based on the provisions of the peace treaty, existing bilateral agreements, and the principles of international legitimacy.

What makes Netanyahu’s position particularly significant is that this marks the first time Israel has taken a measure directly affecting bilateral relations and Jordan’s immediate national interests for explicitly political reasons.

Although successive Jordanian governments have consistently opposed and criticized the policies of Israel’s far right, Netanyahu had never before resorted to what appears to be punitive action against Jordan over its political stance on the Palestinian issue and developments in Gaza.

This signals a profound shift in the mindset of Israel’s current leadership following the events of October 7 and the collapse of the regional framework that had previously governed relations between neighboring states.

It reflects a fundamental transformation in Israel’s security doctrine one that Jordan must study carefully, particularly if Netanyahu returns to power after the next Knesset elections.

The issue has also reignited debate over Jordan’s long-abandoned Red Sea–Dead Sea Water Conveyance Project.

Some argue that Jordan missed an opportunity to implement the project at a lower cost than the current National Water Carrier initiative.

However, the dramatic political changes unfolding across the region and Israel’s near-complete shift toward the far-right camp suggest that Jordan may, in fact, be fortunate not to have become dependent on a joint project with Israel.

Had the Red Sea–Dead Sea project gone ahead, Israel would have been in a position to exert even greater pressure by controlling Jordan’s share of the water supply.

By contrast, the National Water Carrier is a fully Jordanian project. It is expected to provide nearly three times the amount of water originally planned under the joint initiative while safeguarding Jordan’s water security and preserving the independence of its national decision-making.

It is important to note that Jordan pursued the Red Sea–Dead Sea project for years in good faith, hoping it would create a better future for all parties, including the Palestinians.

It was Netanyahu’s government that ultimately stalled the project and instead proposed selling desalinated water to Jordan a model that would have left the Kingdom dependent on Israeli decisions, Jordan firmly rejected that approach.

The bottom line is that Jordan can manage to compensate for the additional water quantities this summer.

The public deserves to be told the truth about the worsening water shortage resulting from Netanyahu’s government’s decision. If that transparency is provided, Jordanians are likely to stand behind both the government and the Ministry of Water.

Jordan has endured water scarcity for decades and has learned to adapt.

Waiting another four years until the National Water Carrier begins delivering water should not be an insurmountable challenge.